Climate change is large, but not impossible to model in real time globally, now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TzqvB3J4yI
My Comment: Climate change is large, but not impossible to model in real time globally, now.
There is quite a bit of tree planting going on. The way to do this is to share your models in open formats, its input data in lossless formats, the assumptions and scenarios in open formats. That is done in many areas of the Internet now. I see quite a bit of it because of the Internet Foundation which helps set standards for that kind of thing. Your talking about it is not going to do much at all. Lots of people talk, but few put the numbers, the data, the equations, the simulations where others can check and contribute to their development. You named a few things, showed no diagrams or equations, no data. This kind of work is hard. It takes dedication and hard work for decades sometimes. ( “climate change” ) is showing 1.07 Billion entries on the Internet today. And your short text narration is going to change that? Yes, “climate change” has lots of viewers, and it is moderately good “click bait”. But clicking is not going to change anything except your finger strength and dexterity, perhaps.
There are lots of countries that benefit from warming. I was running models in the background during the first IPCC, industry, government meeting just after the IPCC was set up. I know how much effort it takes to do it right. I review the effort of the official groups who are supposed to solve it. I worry because their job disappears if they solve it. I think they can move on to new things.
It is generating jobs, every flood is called “climate change”. Every storm is “climate change”. Funding goes up, media produces more media and more people click and click. I have watched the deserts of the world, and also the potential of the Moon and Mars and orbital colonies for decades now. It seems to be the way the human species talks to itself. To throw things on the Internet, billions of people talk and talk. The little grey cells (I am a fan of Poirot) do their things and somehow the human species stumbles and crawls forward. Seldom consciously, almost never complete. It could be open and easy to use and understand. Just count the people who benefit, or who are hurt.
If your scenario is right, then who will benefit? What will they do? What groups will form? What are they likely to do? Most all of it is predictable, verifiable, easy to calculate and estimate. If you have people working at it openly and sharing in lossless models, data and actions.
When I set up the Famine Early Warning System in 1986-1988, when we were just getting started, “famine” seemed this amorphous and complex thing. Too big to track and understand. But it turns out it is NOT hard, just tedious and takes careful attention and conscientious effort of many people, but not billions of people. Many groups, but not millions of groups.
Climate change models are brute force many of them and the people who run those use the “big computers” they have, then mostly ignore what people say or ask in the world. Large organizations tend to get too simplistic because they have budgets to make, plans to write and projects to fund. And they often do not check if anyone is actually doing the work. Or if it has any impact, or if those groups are including everyone. Particularly laying out what is happening in the world now. Not some future decades in the future.
When I was putting together the integrated database of all data for all countries from all international agencies, the Economic and Social Database (with Annette Binnendijk at USAID Bureau for Program and Policy Coordination) we could run 50 years projections for all countries. During the IPCC industry discussions later I was actually working at Phillips Petroleum so I could see it from the inside. And their models, and their data. Those fleet projections, global energy, emissions, ozone, chemical monitoring, satellites — all that is routine now, but mostly no one looks at all of it at once – because the groups all do their own piece in forms that literally do not fit together and can be used by ordinary humans. The AIs are NOT helping because they are all designed as innumerate. And they are not talking to the older modelers who did it by hand but fairly completely before there were chatty computers,
The climate data on the Internet dumped there by the official and unofficial groups, mostly cannot be used by ordinary humans. Because the groups do not give the 5.4 Billion humans using the Internet, the tools to look at the data themselves, not canned and biased and selected for budget raising. Nor the 2.8 Billion humans who depend on others to use the Internet, and many of those billions are rather out of luck now.
The AIs are NOT helping because they are all designed as innumerate. And those companies are not talking to the older modelers who did it by hand with regular computers and the Internet, but fairly completely before there were chatty computers that are not allowed to use a computer, to cite their sources, to have enough memory and time to actually consider and share things seriously enough.
Filed as (Climate change is large, but not impossible to model in real time globally, now)
26 years of the Internet Foundation, 52+ years looking at all needs of all humans. I am just finishing out my life, watching what I can, and trying to tell people that most things are not impossible, if you are willing to work and share in lossless formats with all 8.2 Billion humans. Real time, and recording carefully what is happening, what is said, and working out the precise implications for all.
Richard Collins, The Internet Foundation
